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npj Systems Biology and Applications

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

All preprints, ranked by how well they match npj Systems Biology and Applications's content profile, based on 99 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.10% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit. Older preprints may already have been published elsewhere.

1
Pan-organ model integration of metabolic and regulatory processes in type 1 diabetes

Ben Guebila, M.; Thiele, I.

2019-11-30 systems biology 10.1101/859876 medRxiv
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Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D) is a systemic disease triggered by a local autoimmune inflammatory reaction in insulin-producing cells that disrupts the glucose-insulin-glucagon system and induces organ-wide, long-term effects on glycolytic and nonglycolytic processes. Mathematical modeling of the whole-body regulatory bihormonal system has helped to identify intervention points to ensure better control of T1D but was limited to a coarse-grained representation of metabolism. To extend the depiction of T1D, we developed a whole-body model using a novel integrative modeling framework that links organ-specific regulation and metabolism. The developed framework allowed the correct prediction of disrupted metabolic processes in T1D, highlighted pathophysiological processes common with neurodegenerative disorders, and suggested calcium channel blockers as potential adjuvants for diabetes control. Additionally, the model predicted the occurrence of insulin-dependent rewiring of interorgan crosstalk. Moreover, a simulation of a population of virtual patients allowed an assessment of the impact of inter and intraindividual variability on insulin treatment and the implications for clinical outcomes. In particular, GLUT4 was suggested as a potential pharmacogenomic regulator of intraindividual insulin efficacy. Taken together, the organ-resolved, dynamic model may pave the way for a better understanding of human pathology and model-based design of precise allopathic strategies.

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Patient-specific logical models replicate phenotype responses to psoriatic and anti-psoriatic stimuli.

Tsirvouli, E.; Aker, E.; Kuiper, M.

2023-08-26 systems biology 10.1101/2023.08.24.554583 medRxiv
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Psoriasis is a dermatologic disease that affects 2% of the world population. Psoriasis is characterized by chronic inflammation and aberrant behavior of keratinocytes, which display increased levels of proliferation, and decreased differentiation and apoptosis. Stimulation of keratinocytes by psoriatic cytokines leads to the increased production of immunostimulatory ligands that further attract immune cells and amplify inflammatory responses. Psoriasis can have severe, moderate, or mild outcomes and while these severity levels demand custom medical treatment schemes, assigning an effective treatment to patients with moderate or severe disease is a demanding task. The varied responses of patients to treatments highlight a large disease complexity, demanding that new ways to analyze and integrate patients molecular profiles are developed to design patient-specific therapies. We have used gene expression values from psoriasis biopsies to separate patients into two clusters, each with distinct expression profiles, but nevertheless not correlating with any of the available clinical data, such as disease severity. When using these gene expression levels in logical model simulations these data became highly descriptive of patient-specific phenotype characteristics. Starting from a psoriatic keratinocyte model that we published recently, we added additional pathways highlighted by a differential gene expression analysis between the subgroups. This included components from the Interleukin-1 family, IFN-alpha/beta and IL-6 signaling pathways. Model personalization was performed by using patient gene expression levels in model configurations, exploiting the PROFILE pipeline. Personalized simulations revealed that the two patient clusters represent more innate immunity-driven, highly inflammatory phenotypes and adaptive immunity-driven, chronic phenotypes, respectively. The model was also able to finely capture differences between responses in patients with a known disease severity. A treatment response analysis among the patient cohort predicted differential responses to the inhibition of psoriatic stimuli, with IL-17, TNF and PGE2 inhibition reducing proliferation and inflammatory phenotypes. Alternative treatment with PGE2 or TNF inhibition instead of IL-17 was suggested for patients with high NF-{kappa}B activity and prosurvival factors, such as CREB1. With this project, we aim to highlight the value of combining omics data with logical modeling for the detection of emergent phenotypes and for gaining disease knowledge on the individual patient level.

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A comprehensive logic-based model of the human immune system to study the dynamics responses to mono- and coinfections

Puniya, B. L.; Moore, R.; Mohammed, A.; Amin, R.; La Fleur, A.; Helikar, T.

2020-03-12 systems biology 10.1101/2020.03.11.988238 medRxiv
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The immune system is a complex and dynamic network, crucial for combating infections and maintaining health. Developing a comprehensive digital twin of the immune system requires incorporating essential cellular components and their interactions. This study presents the first blueprint for an immune system digital twin, consisting of a comprehensive and simulatable mechanistic model. It integrates 51 innate and adaptive immune cells, 37 secretory factors, and 11 disease conditions, providing the foundation for developing a multi-scale model. The cellular-level model demonstrates its potential in characterizing immune responses to various single and combinatorial disease conditions. By making the model available in easy-to-use formats directly in the Cell Collective platform, the community can easily and further expand it. This blueprint represents a significant step towards developing general-purpose immune digital twins, with far-reaching implications for the future of digital twin technology in life sciences and healthcare, advancing patient care, and accelerating precision medicine.

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FROG Analysis Ensures the Reproducibility of Genome Scale Metabolic Models

Raman, K.; Kratochvil, M.; Olivier, B. G.; Konig, M.; Sengupta, P.; Baskaran, D. K. K.; Nguyen, T. V. N.; Lobo, D.; Wilken, S. E.; Tiwari, K. K.; Raghu, A. K.; Palanikumar, I.; Raajaraam, L.; Ibrahim, M.; Balakrishnan, S.; Umale, S.; Bergmann, F.; Malpani, T.; Satagopam, V. P.; Schneider, R.; Beber, M. E.; Keating, S.; Anton, M.; Renz, A.; Lakshmanan, M.; Lee, D.-Y.; Koduru, L.; Mostolizadeh, R.; Dias, O.; Cunha, E.; Oliveira, A.; Lee, Y. Q.; Zengler, K.; Santibanez-Palominos, R.; Kumar, M.; Barberis, M.; Puniya, B. L.; Helikar, T.; Dinh, H. V.; Suthers, P. F.; Maranas, C. D.; Casini, I.; Logh

2024-09-26 systems biology 10.1101/2024.09.24.614797 medRxiv
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Genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs) and other constraint-based models (CBMs) play a pivotal role in understanding biological phenotypes and advancing research in areas like metabolic engineering, human disease modelling, drug discovery, and personalized medicine. Despite their growing application, a significant challenge remains in ensuring the reproducibility of GEMs, primarily due to inconsistent reporting and inadequate model documentation of model results. Addressing this gap, we introduce FROG analysis, a community-driven initiative aimed at standardizing reproducibility assessments of CBMs and GEMs. The FROG framework encompasses four key analyses--Flux variability, Reaction deletion, Objective function, and Gene deletion--to produce standardized, numerically reproducible FROG reports. These reports serve as reference datasets, enabling model evaluators, curators, and independent researchers to verify the reproducibility of GEMs systematically. BioModels, a leading repository of systems biology models, has integrated FROG analysis into its curation workflow, enhancing the reproducibility and reusability of submitted GEMs. In our study evaluating 65 GEM submissions from the community, approximately 40% reproduced without intervention, 28% requiring minor adjustments, and 32% needing input from authors. The standardization introduced by FROG analysis facilitated the detection and resolution of issues, ultimately leading to the successful reproduction of all models. By establishing a standardized and comprehensive approach to evaluating GEM reproducibility, FROG analysis significantly contributes to making CBMs and GEMs more transparent, reusable, and reliable for the broader scientific community.

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A Consensus Model of Glucose-Stimulated Insulin Secretion in the Pancreatic beta-Cell

Maheshvare, D.; Raha, S.; Konig, M.; Pal, D.

2023-03-12 systems biology 10.1101/2023.03.10.532028 medRxiv
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The pancreas plays a critical role in maintaining glucose homeostasis through the secretion of hormones from the islets of Langerhans. Glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS) by the pancreatic {beta}-cell is the main mechanism for reducing elevated plasma glucose. Here we present a systematic modeling workflow for the development of kinetic pathway models using the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML). Steps include retrieval of information from databases, curation of experimental and clinical data for model calibration and validation, integration of heterogeneous data including absolute and relative measurements, unit normalization, data normalization, and model annotation. An important factor was the reproducibility and exchangeability of the model, which allowed the use of various existing tools. The workflow was applied to construct the first consensus model of GSIS in the pancreatic {beta}-cell based on experimental and clinical data from 39 studies spanning 50 years of pancreatic, islet, and {beta}-cell research in humans, rats, mice, and cell lines. The model consists of detailed glycolysis and equations for insulin secretion coupled to cellular energy state (ATP/ADP ratio). Key findings of our work are that in GSIS there is a glucose-dependent increase in almost all intermediates of glycolysis. This increase in glycolytic metabolites is accompanied by an increase in energy metabolites, especially ATP and NADH. One of the few decreasing metabolites is ADP, which, in combination with the increase in ATP, results in a large increase in ATP/ADP ratios in the {beta}-cell with increasing glucose. Insulin secretion is dependent on ATP/ADP, resulting in glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. The observed glucose-dependent increase in glycolytic intermediates and the resulting change in ATP/ADP ratios and insulin secretion is a robust phenomenon observed across data sets, experimental systems and species. Model predictions of the glucose-dependent response of glycolytic intermediates and insulin secretion are in good agreement with experimental measurements. Our model predicts that factors affecting ATP consumption, ATP formation, hexokinase, phosphofructokinase, and ATP/ADP-dependent insulin secretion have a major effect on GSIS. In conclusion, we have developed and applied a systematic modeling workflow for pathway models that allowed us to gain insight into key mechanisms in GSIS in the pancreatic {beta}-cell.

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Cancer-associated fibroblasts drive metabolic heterogeneity in KRAS-mutant colorectal cancer cells

Elton, E.; Tavakoli, N.; Cetin, H.; Finley, S. D.

2025-10-01 systems biology 10.1101/2025.09.30.679631 medRxiv
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KRAS-mutant colorectal cancer (CRC) is characterized by metabolic reprogramming that can lead to tumor progression and drug resistance. The tumor microenvironment (TME) plays a pivotal role in modulating these metabolic adaptations. In particular, cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs), which make up a large portion of the TME, have been shown to strongly contribute to metabolic reprogramming in CRC. This study applies flux sampling, a computational method that explores the full range of feasible metabolic states, combined with representation learning and hierarchical clustering, to a computational model of central carbon metabolism to understand how CAFs influence metabolic adaptations of KRAS-mutant CRC cells following targeted enzyme knockdowns. Focusing on twelve key enzymes involved in glycolysis and the pentose phosphate pathway, knockdowns were simulated under both normal CRC media and CAF-conditioned media (CCM) conditions. Analysis revealed that CCM induces greater metabolic heterogeneity, with knockdown models exhibiting more variable and distinct metabolic states compared to those cultured in normal CRC media. While some enzyme knockdowns produced similar metabolic states, this overlap was less frequent in CCM, indicating that CAF-derived factors diversify the metabolic responses of CRC cells to enzyme perturbations. Pathway-level flux analysis demonstrated media-specific shifts in central carbon metabolism pathways. Importantly, the predicted biomass flux showed that enzyme knockdowns reduced growth across both conditions, but models in the CCM condition indicated CAFs could offer a protective effect against metabolic perturbation. Overall, this study reveals that CCM significantly influences the metabolic state and adaptability of KRAS-mutant CRC cells to enzyme perturbations, emphasizing the importance of including TME components in metabolic modeling and therapeutic development. These findings provide valuable insights into the metabolic adaptability of CRC and suggest that targeting tumor-CAF metabolic interactions may improve treatment strategies. Graphical Abstract Overview of computational workflowModels of interest represent simulated enzyme knockdowns in central carbon metabolism. Flux sampling searches the entire metabolic solution space and results in a distribution of flux values for each reaction within each model. Samples can be organized by knockdown and condition into matrices for input into representation learning. Representation learning is applied to sampling data to identify shared and independent metabolic states. Metabolic states indicate a heterogeneous response to enzyme knockdowns. Overlap of dark and light blue flux distributions, sampling clusters, and metabolic responses exemplify a shared metabolic state separate from to the gray unperturbed state. This workflow provides a low-dimensional representation of metabolic state that captures both the pathway- and reaction-level differences that describe each simulated knockdown. O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=172 SRC="FIGDIR/small/679631v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (34K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@cb6226org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@98d94eorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@e2b20aorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@116cfcd_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

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Integrated experimental-computational analysis of a liver-islet microphysiological system for human-centric diabetes research

Casas, B.; Vilen, L.; Bauer, S.; Kanebratt, K.; Wennberg Huldt, C.; Magnusson, L.; Marx, U.; Andersson, T. B.; Gennemark, P.; Cedersund, G.

2021-08-19 systems biology 10.1101/2021.08.18.456693 medRxiv
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Microphysiological systems (MPS) are powerful tools for emulating human physiology and replicating disease progression in vitro. MPS could be better predictors of human outcome than current animal models, but mechanistic interpretation and in vivo extrapolation of the experimental results remain significant challenges. Here, we address these challenges using an integrated experimental-computational approach. This approach allows for in silico representation and predictions of glucose metabolism in a previously reported MPS with two organ compartments (liver and pancreas) connected in a closed loop with circulating medium. We developed a computational model describing glucose metabolism over 15 days of culture in the MPS. The model was calibrated on an experiment-specific basis using data from seven experiments, where single-liver or liver-islet cultures were exposed to both normal and hyperglycemic conditions resembling high blood glucose levels in diabetes. The calibrated models reproduced the fast (i.e. hourly) variations in glucose and insulin observed in the MPS experiments, as well as the long-term (i.e. over weeks) decline in both glucose tolerance and insulin secretion. We also investigated the behavior of the system under hypoglycemia by simulating this condition in silico, and the model could correctly predict the glucose and insulin responses measured in new MPS experiments. Last, we used the computational model to translate the experimental results to humans, showing good agreement with published data of the glucose response to a meal in healthy subjects. The integrated experimental-computational framework opens new avenues for future investigations toward disease mechanisms and the development of new therapies for metabolic disorders.

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A combined computational and experimental approach to successfully predict the behavior of metastatic tumor-associated macrophages in humanbreast cancer

Bekkar, A.; Pabois, A.; Crespo, I.; Turrini, R.; Xenarios, I.; Doucey, M.-A.

2025-02-08 systems biology 10.1101/2025.02.06.636799 medRxiv
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We identified in human breast cancer a scarce population of Tumor-Associated Monocytes (TAMs) endowed with a pro-metastatic activity and associated with reduced distant-metastasis free survival of patients. We developed a novel framework combining computational and experimental methodologies to dampen TAM pro-metastatic activity. Multi-modal experimental data from TAMs exposed in vitro to a series of perturbations were collected to build a Boolean dynamical network of TAMs. This framework successfully identified the biological pathways underlying TAM pro-metastatic activity and predicted potent pharmacological interventions that inhibited the pro-metastatic activity of TAMs isolated from patient tumors. This study showcases the power of integrating computational predictions with experimental validation in identifying new therapeutic avenues that can be extended to other cancer types.

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Ensemble Machine Learning Approaches Predict Survival in Lower-Grade Glioma Based on Glycosphingolipid Gene Expression and Metabolic Modelling

Welland, J. W. J.; Deane, J. E.

2026-01-23 bioinformatics 10.64898/2026.01.21.700788 medRxiv
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Glycosphingolipids (GSLs) are essential components of biological membranes with important roles in cell signalling. Disrupted GSL metabolism is associated with malignancy across a range of cancers, with different GSLs implicated in distinct tumours. GSLs have potential mechanistic roles in cancer; however, their functions in Lower Grade Gliomas (LGGs) remain poorly understood. We present ensemble machine learning approaches using transcriptomic data from LGG, combined with GSL-specific metabolic simulations, to predict survival outcomes. The ensemble approach demonstrates effective risk stratification for LGG patients based on GSL gene expression. Pathway analysis of model-derived risk groups highlighted potential association of GSLs with cell motility, division and Wnt signalling in LGG pathology. Given the strong performance of machine learning approaches to predict outcomes and that GSLs are shed into the tumour microenvironment, GSL-based diagnostics and prognostics may prove clinically beneficial. A Python package enabling GSL-specific metabolic modelling and risk prediction from RNA-seq data is provided.

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Model-guided Design of Biological Controller for Septic Wound Healing Regulation

Green, L.; Naghshnejad, P.; Dankwa, D.; Tang, X.

2023-01-18 systems biology 10.1101/2023.01.16.523937 medRxiv
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Immune response is critical in septic wound healing. The aberrant and imbalanced signaling dynamics primarily cause a dysfunctional innate immune response, exacerbating pathogen invasion of injured tissue and further stalling the healing process. To design biological controllers that regulate the critical divergence of the immune response during septicemia, we need to understand the intricate differences in immune cell dynamics and coordinated molecular signals of healthy and sepsis injury. Here, we deployed an ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based model to capture the hyper and hypo-inflammatory phases of sepsis wound healing. Our results indicate that impaired macrophage polarization leads to a high abundance of monocytes, M1, and M2 macrophage phenotypes, resulting in immune paralysis. Using a model-based analysis framework, we designed a biological controller which successfully regulates macrophage dysregulation observed in septic wounds. Our model describes a systems biology approach to predict and explore critical parameters as potential therapeutic targets capable of transitioning septic wound inflammation toward a healthy, wound-healing state.

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A multiscale model of the mammalian liver circadian clock supports synchronization of autonomous oscillations by intercellular communication.

Marri, D. K.; Bhattacharya, S.; Filipovic, D.; Kana, O. Z.; Zhang, Q.; Sluka, J.; Liu, S.

2024-02-20 systems biology 10.1101/2024.02.15.580517 medRxiv
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Expression of core circadian clock genes in hepatocytes across the liver lobule is temporally synchronized despite cell-autonomous oscillations in gene expression. This spatial synchronization has been attributed to an unknown intercellular coupling mechanism. Here we have developed multicellular computational models of the murine liver lobule with and without intercellular coupling to investigate the role of synchronization in circadian gene expression. Our models demonstrated that intercellular coupling was needed to generate sustained circadian oscillations with a near 24-hour period. Without coupling the simulated period was variable within the 21-28-hour range. Further model analysis revealed that a robust near-24-hour oscillation period can be generated with a wide range of circadian protein degradation rates. In contrast, only a small window of circadian gene transcription rates was able to generate realistic oscillatory periods. The coupled model accurately captured the temporal dynamics of circadian genes derived from single-nuclei transcriptomic data. Overall, this study provides novel insights into the mammalian hepatic circadian clock through modeling of spatial and temporal gene expression patterns and data-driven analysis.

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Model-Enabled Knowledge Transfer across cell lines, culture scales and conditions

Yu, L.; del Rio Chanona, A.; Kontoravdi, C.

2025-12-02 systems biology 10.64898/2025.11.30.691385 medRxiv
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Mechanistic models are central to quantitative understanding and optimisation of Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell culture processes, but their utility is often restricted by parameter sets calibrated for specific cell lines, scales, or operating conditions. In this study, we present the application of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to bioprocessing, introducing an ensemble-based framework for dual state and parameter estimation that enables mechanistic model adaptation across distinct systems. The EnKF recursively assimilates process measurements to update uncertain kinetic parameters and predict system states, allowing a model developed for one system to be transferred to a new one without reparametrisation and using only a single experimental dataset. The evolving parameter ensembles provide a time-resolved sensitivity analysis that identifies which parameters have dominant influence under new process conditions and when their effects become significant. The framework was evaluated across six CHO cell experimental datasets differing in scale, cell line, temperature, and feeding strategy, demonstrating accurate reconstruction of system dynamics and progressive improvement in long-term predictions as new data became available. By maintaining full mechanistic transparency while flexibly adapting to new data, the EnKF offers a practical route for knowledge transfer across systems, strengthening the role of mechanistic modelling in data-informed bioprocess understanding and control.

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TISON: a next-generation multi-scale modeling theatre for in silico systems oncology

Gondal, M. N.; Sultan, M. U.; Arif, A.; Rehman, A.; Awan, H. A.; Arshad, Z.; Ahmed, W.; Chaudhary, M. F.; Khan, S.; Tanveer, Z. B.; Butt, R. N.; Hussain, R.; Khawar, H.; Amina, B.; Akbar, R.; Abbas, F.; Jami, M. N.; Nasir, Z.; Shah, O. S.; Hameed, H.; Butt, M. F.; Mustafa, G.; Ahmad, M. M.; Ahmed, S.; Qazi, R.; Ahmed, F.; Ishaq, O.; Nabi, S. W.; Vanderbauwhede, W.; Wajid, B.; Shehwana, H.; Uddin, E.; Safdar, M.; Javed, I.; Tariq, M.; Faisal, A.; Chaudhary, S. U.

2021-05-05 systems biology 10.1101/2021.05.04.442539 medRxiv
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Multi-scale models integrating biomolecular data from genetic, transcriptional, and translational levels, coupled with extracellular microenvironments can assist in decoding the complex mechanisms underlying system-level diseases such as cancer. To investigate the emergent properties and clinical translation of such cancer models, we present Theatre for in silico Systems Oncology (TISON, https://tison.lums.edu.pk), a next-generation web-based multi-scale modeling and simulation platform for in silico systems oncology. TISON provides a "zero-code" environment for multi-scale model development by seamlessly coupling scale-specific information from biomolecular networks, microenvironments, cell decision circuits, in silico cell lines, and organoid geometries. To compute the temporal evolution of multi-scale models, a simulation engine and data analysis features are also provided. Furthermore, TISON integrates patient-specific gene expression data to evaluate patient-centric models towards personalized therapeutics. Several literature-based case studies have been developed to exemplify and validate TISONs modeling and analysis capabilities. TISON provides a cutting-edge multi-scale modeling pipeline for scale-specific as well as integrative systems oncology that can assist in drug target discovery, repositioning, and development of personalized therapeutics.

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Using interactive platforms to encode, manage and explore immune-related adverse outcome pathways

Mazein, A.; Shoaib, M.; Alb, M.; Sakellariou, C.; Sommer, C.; Sewald, K.; Reiche, K.; Gogesch, P.; Roser, L. A.; Ortega Iannazzo, S.; Sheth, S.; Schiffmann, S.; Waibler, Z.; Neuhaus, V.; Dehmel, S.; Satagopam, V.; Schneider, R.; Ostaszewski, M.; Gu, W.

2023-03-23 systems biology 10.1101/2023.03.21.533620 medRxiv
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We address the need for modelling and predicting adverse outcomes in immunotoxicology to improve non-clinical assessments of immunomodulatory therapy safety and efficacy. The integrated approach includes, first, the adverse outcome pathway concept established in the toxicology field, and, second, the systems medicine disease map approach for describing molecular mechanisms involved in a particular pathology. The proposed systems immunotoxicology workflow is demonstrated with CAR T cell treatment as a use case. To this end, the linear adverse outcome pathway (AOP) is expanded into a molecular interaction model in standard systems biology formats. Then it is shown how knowledge related to immunotoxic events can be integrated, encoded, managed and explored to benefit the research community. The map is accessible online via the MINERVA Platform for browsing, commenting and data visualisation (https://minerva.pages.uni.lu). Our work transforms a graphical illustration of an AOP into a digitally structured and standardised form, featuring precise and controlled vocabulary and supporting reproducible computational analyses. Because of annotations to source literature and databases, the map can be further expanded to match the evolving knowledge and research questions.

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A dynamic Boolean model of molecular and cellular interactions represents psoriasis development and predicts drug candidates.

Tsirvouli, E.; Noël, V.; Flobak, A.; Calzone, L.; Kuiper, M.

2023-09-06 systems biology 10.1101/2023.09.03.556147 medRxiv
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Psoriasis is a chronic skin disease affecting 2-3% of the global population. Psoriasis arises from complex interactions between keratinocytes and immune cells, leading to uncontrolled inflammation, immune hyperactivation and perturbed keratinocyte life cycle. Although the latest generation of drugs have greatly improved psoriasis management, the disease remains incurable, and the substantial variability in treatment response calls for novel approaches to comprehend the intricate mechanisms underlying disease development and to discover potential drug targets. In this study, we present a multiscale population model that captures the dynamics of cell-specific phenotypes in psoriasis, integrating discrete logical formalism and population dynamics simulations. Through simulations and network metrics, we identify potential pairwise interventions as alternative treatment options. Specifically, The model predictions suggest that targeting neutrophil activation in conjunction with either PGE2 production or STAT3 signaling shows promise comparable to IL-17 inhibition, which is currently the most used treatment option for moderate and severe cases of psoriasis. Our findings underscore the significance of considering complex intercellular interactions and intracellular signaling cascades in psoriasis, and highlight the importance of computational approaches in unraveling complex biological systems for drug target identification. Author summaryIn our study, we aimed to uncover the complex mechanisms underlying psoriasis and identify potential treatment options. By utilizing a computational model, we simulated the dynamic interactions between different cell types involved in psoriasis, such as immune cells and keratinocytes. Our model predicts that targeting neutrophil activation, combined with either PGE2 production or STAT3 signaling, may yield comparable effectiveness to the current standard treatment for moderate or severe psoriasis, namely IL-17 inhibition. Our study underscores the importance of computational modeling in unraveling the complexities of disease systems and provides a foundation for identifying new candidate treatment options in psoriasis that should be tested in the lab.

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A bistable circuit regulates miRNA-155 levels in human macrophage inflammatory transitions

Mora-Rodriguez, R. M.; Guevara-Coto, J.; Acon, M. S.; Torres-Calvo, J.; Oviedo, G.; Regnier-Vigouroux, A.; Geiss, C.

2025-07-14 systems biology 10.1101/2025.07.09.663909 medRxiv
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Macrophages are crucial immune regulators as they can either trigger or resolve inflammation. These properties rely on defined inflammatory states and make macrophages valuable therapeutic targets. Identification of stable steady states and bistability in inflammatory transitions provides deeper insights into immune regulation and facilitates the development of novel therapeutic strategies. We present a multiomic and systems biology approach for the top-down identification of bistable circuits in human macrophages polarized towards pro- and anti-inflammatory phenotypes. Using differential gene expression profiles, we identified three criteria to suspect bistability: two potential attractors, a hysteresis behavior between their transitions, and the presence of potential modules of coregulated genes. This was further confirmed by proteomics data pointing to mutually exclusive and time-dependent profiles of gene expression. By network simplification and creation of a novel pipeline for parameter estimation in bistable models, we obtained a minimal model of inflammatory transitions in which we identified ultrasensitivity and hysteresis. Our minimal model genes establish a regulatory circuit switching miR-155 expression, which in turn regulates the expression of inflammatory marker genes during inflammatory transitions.

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Systematic analysis and optimization of early warning signals for critical transitions

Proverbio, D.; Skupin, A.; Goncalves, J.

2022-11-04 systems biology 10.1101/2022.11.04.515178 medRxiv
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Abrupt shifts between alternative regimes occur in complex systems, from cell regulation to brain functions to ecosystems. Several model-free Early Warning Signals (EWS) have been proposed to detect impending transitions, but failure or poor performance in some systems have called for better investigation of their generic applicability. In particular, there are still ongoing debates whether such signals can be successfully extracted from data. In this work, we systematically investigate properties and performance of dynamical EWS in different deteriorating conditions, and we propose an optimised combination to trigger warnings as early as possible, eventually verified on experimental data. Our results explain discrepancies observed in the literature between warning signs extracted from simulated models and from real data, provide guidance for EWS selection based on desired systems and suggest an optimised composite indicator to alert for impending critical transitions. HighlightsO_LIHow to extract early warning signals (EWS) against critical transitions from data is still poorly understood C_LIO_LIA mathematical framework assesses and explains the performance of EWS in noisy deteriorating conditions C_LIO_LIComposite indicators are optimised to alert for impending shifts C_LIO_LIThe results are applicable to wide classes of systems, as shown with models and on empirical data. C_LI

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Computational modeling of cell signaling and mutations in pancreatic cancer

Telmer, C. A.; Sayed, K.; Butchy, A. A.; Bocan, K.; Kaltenmeier, C.; Lotze, M. T.; Miskov-Zivanov, N.

2021-06-09 systems biology 10.1101/2021.06.08.447557 medRxiv
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Published research articles are rich sources of data when the knowledge is incorporated into models. Complex biological systems benefit from computational modelings ability to elucidate dynamics, explain data and address hypotheses. Modeling of pancreatic cancer could guide treatment of this devastating disease that has a known mutational profile disrupting signaling pathways but no reliable therapies. The approach described here is to utilize discrete modeling of the major signaling pathways, metabolism and the tumor microenvironment including macrophages. This modeling approach allows for abstraction in order to assemble large networks to capture numerous facets of the biological system under investigation. The Hallmarks of Cancer are represented as the processes of apoptosis, autophagy, cell cycle progression, inflammation, immune response, oxidative phosphorylation and proliferation. The model is initialized with pancreatic cancer receptors and mutations and simulated in time. The model portrays the hallmarks of cancer and suggests combinations of inhibitors as therapies.

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Systematic sensitivity analyses of growth modelling to evaluate the robustness of Genome Scale Metabolic Network models -- case study with the filamentous fungus Penicillium rubens

NEGRE, D.; LARHLIMI, A.; BERTRAND, S.

2025-09-16 systems biology 10.1101/2025.09.10.675325 medRxiv
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The Biomass Objective Function is crucial to the predictive capability of Genome-Scale Metabolic Network (GSMN) models. Its definition should theoretically reflect the organism-specific macromolecular composition and stoichiometry under defined environmental conditions. In practice, however, reconstruction decisions--whether documented, reasoned, or arbitrary--often lead to model refinements which can potentially introduce ambiguities and may compromise the reliability of simulation outcomes. To mitigate this issue, we propose that systematic sensitivity analysis should be a mandatory step in GSMN validation. This approach quantitatively assesses the reliability of flux predictions by probing a models responsiveness to perturbations in its core objective function and environmental inputs. We demonstrate this approach using the fungus model Penicillium rubens iPrub22. First, we evaluate the sensitivity of predicted fluxes to variations in the stoichiometric coefficients of the biomass reaction. Then, we examine the models metabolic behaviour under alternative nutrient conditions. Finally, we assess whether secondary metabolite production, governed by its own regulatory logic, remains robust to changes in the biomass objective function formulated for growth. Together, these analyses measure the degree to which a models predictions are sensitive to specific reconstruction choices, thereby establishing a standard for evaluating predictive robustness to parameter uncertainties and functional quality in GSMNs.

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Multistability and predominant double-positive states in a four node mutually repressive network: a case study of Th1/Th2/Th17/T-reg differentiation

Duddu, A. S.; Andreas, E.; BV, H.; Grover, K.; Singh, V. R.; Hari, K.; Jhunjhunwala, S.; Cummins, B.; Gedeon, T.; Jolly, M. K.

2024-02-02 systems biology 10.1101/2024.01.30.575880 medRxiv
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Elucidating the emergent dynamics of complex regulatory networks enabling cellular differentiation is crucial to understand embryonic development and suggest strategies for synthetic circuit design. A well-studied network motif often driving cellular decisions is a toggle switch - a set of two mutually inhibitory lineage-specific transcription factors A and B. A toggle switch often enables two possible mutually exclusive states - (high A, low B) and (low A, high B) - from a common progenitor cell. However, the dynamics of networks enabling differentiation of more than two cell types from a progenitor cell is not well-studied. Here, we investigate the dynamics of four master regulators A, B, C and D inhibiting each other, thus forming a toggle tetrahedron. Our simulations show that a toggle tetrahedron predominantly allows for co-existence of six double positive or hybrid states where two of the nodes are expressed relatively high as compared to the remaining two - (high A, high B, low C, low D), (high A, low B, high C, low D), (high A, low B, low C, high D), (low A, high B, high C, low D), (low A, low B, high C, high D) and (low A, high B, low C, high D). Stochastic simulations showed state-switching among these phenotypes, indicating phenotypic plasticity. Finally, we apply our results to understand the differentiation of naive CD4+ T cells into Th1, Th2, Th17 and Treg subsets, suggesting Th1/Th2/Th17/Treg decision-making to be a two-step process. Our results reveal multistable dynamics and establish the stable co-existence of hybrid cell-states, offering a potential explanation for simultaneous differentiation of multipotent naive CD4+ T cells.